One of the potential victims of climatic change will be chocolate.
Will the prospect of losing their favorite dessert finally get people to wake up?
In a world that takes for granted the availability of delicious and affordable chocolate, it's easy to forget that the popular product, in fact, comes from trees- unfortunately not from magical elves or free-flowing cocoa rivers. But some experts are predicting that in a matter of decades, a drop in production due to changing weather and agriculture incentives may make chocolate 'as expensive as gold'.
"In 20 years chocolate will be like caviar. It will become so rare and so expensive that the average Joe just won't be able to afford it," says a researcher.
According to a report, much of the world's cocoa is grown by farmers in West Africa- and the world's collective sweet tooth may not be enough to make producing the crop profitable for them. One of the reasons has to do with just how labor-intensive cocoa production is. Cultivation of cocoa takes several years as trees are slow to mature; not to mention about the depletion of the soil nutrients in the process. Meanwhile, there's better money to be made elsewhere.
Chairman of the Cocoa Research Association, Tony Lass points out: These smallholders earn just 80 cents a day. So there's no incentive to replant cocoa trees when they die off and to wait upto five years for a new crop. No younger generation are around to do the replanting, either. The children of these African cocoa farmers whose life expectancy is only 56 are heading for the cities rather than undertake backbreaking work for such a mean reward.
Cocoa production also faces competition from other crops which farmers may find more financially appealing, like palm-oil, driven by an increasing demand for biofuels and rubber. Besides, changes in weather patterns have crippled production in places like Indonesia that might normally be there to pick up the slack.
All this leads to an unfortunate reality that's sure to give chocoholics the shake- and not from a sugar-rush.
"Chocolate consumption is increasing faster than cocoa production and it's not sustainable," says Lass. Demand exceeds supply.
In the last few decades, these factors have led to higher cocoa prices but in the coming years they could place chocolate out of reach of the average consumer.
"Production will have decreased within 20 years to the point where we won't see any more cheap bars in vending machines," predicts Marc Demarquette, a British confectioner who advised the BBC on a story about the coming chocolate crisis.
Nevertheless, experts say that changes in agricultural practices can avoid a chocolate crisis. For example, if small-scale farmers are banded together, they might have more influence and incentive to keep the crop growing through programs like 'Fair Trade Initiative'.
While it may be detestable that one of the world's most delectable dessert options could soon be unavailable for all but the rich as the prices are set to skyrocket, it does delight the imagination to picture a world where chocolate is valued like gold- which really isn't worth much taste-wise at least to me.
Maybe in twenty years time, much of our cocoa wealth will be placed behind the heavily-guarded walls of some secure military facility for safe keeping. In Chocolate Bay?
Thank you and enjoy the rest of your week.
Love,
Prof. Dr. Alex Abraham Odikandathil
According to a report, much of the world's cocoa is grown by farmers in West Africa- and the world's collective sweet tooth may not be enough to make producing the crop profitable for them. One of the reasons has to do with just how labor-intensive cocoa production is. Cultivation of cocoa takes several years as trees are slow to mature; not to mention about the depletion of the soil nutrients in the process. Meanwhile, there's better money to be made elsewhere.
Chairman of the Cocoa Research Association, Tony Lass points out: These smallholders earn just 80 cents a day. So there's no incentive to replant cocoa trees when they die off and to wait upto five years for a new crop. No younger generation are around to do the replanting, either. The children of these African cocoa farmers whose life expectancy is only 56 are heading for the cities rather than undertake backbreaking work for such a mean reward.
Cocoa production also faces competition from other crops which farmers may find more financially appealing, like palm-oil, driven by an increasing demand for biofuels and rubber. Besides, changes in weather patterns have crippled production in places like Indonesia that might normally be there to pick up the slack.
All this leads to an unfortunate reality that's sure to give chocoholics the shake- and not from a sugar-rush.
"Chocolate consumption is increasing faster than cocoa production and it's not sustainable," says Lass. Demand exceeds supply.
In the last few decades, these factors have led to higher cocoa prices but in the coming years they could place chocolate out of reach of the average consumer.
"Production will have decreased within 20 years to the point where we won't see any more cheap bars in vending machines," predicts Marc Demarquette, a British confectioner who advised the BBC on a story about the coming chocolate crisis.
Nevertheless, experts say that changes in agricultural practices can avoid a chocolate crisis. For example, if small-scale farmers are banded together, they might have more influence and incentive to keep the crop growing through programs like 'Fair Trade Initiative'.
While it may be detestable that one of the world's most delectable dessert options could soon be unavailable for all but the rich as the prices are set to skyrocket, it does delight the imagination to picture a world where chocolate is valued like gold- which really isn't worth much taste-wise at least to me.
Maybe in twenty years time, much of our cocoa wealth will be placed behind the heavily-guarded walls of some secure military facility for safe keeping. In Chocolate Bay?
Thank you and enjoy the rest of your week.
Love,
Prof. Dr. Alex Abraham Odikandathil
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